July 2025
 Australia sailing into a fog of geo-insecurity If Australia doesn’t change course, it will find itself sailing into a fog of geo-insecurity within 10 to 15 years according to veteran Singaporean diplomat and celebrated author Professor Kishore Mahbubani. Speaking in an APSF webinar on the theme “Abandoning our fears: Finding peace and security in our region” with former Foreign Minister Professor Gareth Evans, Mahbubani explained that as Western power in Asia recedes, Australia will find that most geopolitics is about geography and Australia is in Asia. “We are witnessing a one in 200-year change with the decline of the West and the return of Asia” he said and “Australia is struggling to find its place.” The Donald Trump story is not about one man, it is about a structural change in the United States, a return to ‘take care of me again’ for the American people as reflected in the MAGA slogan with the result that for the rest of the world it is “you look after yourself’. “It is a different world. We need to think differently. The world that you lived in so comfortably has changed seismically”, he said. In 1980, the combined European economy GNP was ten times the size of China’s GNP, but today they are about the same size; by 2050 the European economy is predicted to be about half the size of China. As a friend and neighbour, Mahbubani offered some advice for Australians, ‘we must stop speaking condescendingly to Asians, that era is past and many in the West have not grasped it.’ Australians needs a psychological adaptation to an Asian environment. Asia is also changing, adapting and evolving. It is not static. Asia wants good ties with the US and with China, he explained. The webinar was moderated by Melissa Conley Tyler,Executive Director of the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue (AP4D). The video of this excellent webinar is available here. |
 Time to refocus Australia’s Defence and Foreign PolicyThe stark reality is that the insurance policy Australia has long thought to be buying through our alliance enmeshment with the US can simply no longer be relied upon, if indeed it ever could, the Hon Gareth Evans AC, former Australian Foreign Minister told the “Abandoning our fears” webinar. “All this means that there is a fundamental need for Australia now to rethink and refocus our defence and foreign policy. I have argued at length elsewhere for this to be built around four guiding principles: Less America, More Self-Reliance, More Asia and More Global Engagement, he said. Less America does not mean welcoming an American retreat from our region, where it can continue to play an important balancing role, concentrating China’s mind on the risks of over-reach – but it does mean recognising frankly that the days of US primacy are over, and adjusting our expectations accordingly. More Self-Reliance – on the premise that defence planning must of course be based on potential adversaries’ capabilities, not on assumptions means we are going to have to get used to doing more, spending significantly more, and prioritising that expenditure more wisely. Scrapping the AUKUS submarine project – which is highly contestable on deliverability, cost-benefit and loss of sovereign agency grounds – would create most of the necessary budget room to do just that. More Asia means Australia actively pursuing, as the present Government is effectively doing, strengthened political, and where possible military, relationships on both a bilateral and mini-lateral basis with our key Asian regional neighbours – Japan, Korea, India and in South East Asia – with whom we have obvious common interests. All of us have strong economic relations with China, none of us really want to be forced to take sides in the China-US strategic contest, and none of us want to be collateral damage if things go pear-shaped. Keeping our balance as we walk a tightrope between China and the United States is not an enterprise for the diplomatically or politically faint-hearted. The stakes could hardly be higher,” he concluded. A video of this most interesting discussion is available here.  Australia’s military industry is growing rapidly, but we are kept in the dark: Quaker study findsRecent Australian Governments have set a goal for Australia to become one of the ten largest military exporters globally, but neither the Australian public nor the parliament know what weapons (including components) are being exported, by what companies, to whom or for what purpose. This is a key finding of the recently released report “Is Australia Arming Human Rights Abuses?” by researcher Jessica Morrison and the Quaker Australia Peace and Legislation Committee. Australia’s military industry is opaque, says the Quaker report and “Australia has an obligation to ensure its military trade does not support human rights abuses.” From leader to laggard In 2006 seven countries, including Australia, introduced a United Nations General Assembly resolution “Towards an arms trade treaty: establishing common international standards for the import, export and transfer of conventional arms.” Following the resolution’s adoption, Australia was part of a group of Governmental Experts from 28 countries which undertook initial scoping for a treaty and Australian Ambassador Peter Woolcott presided over the Final UN Conference on the Arms Trade Treaty in March 2013. The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) came into force 10 years ago, with Australia playing a pivotal role in its formation. The ATT establishes global standards, forbidding arms sales when there is a risk of them being used to violate human rights. But today, Australia’s current military trade fails basic standards of public accountability and undermines the vision of the Arms Trade Treaty. The brink of Armageddon Global military expenditure is USD$2.4 trillion annually, 10 times that spent on development assistance. In her address to the UN General Assembly in 2023, Foreign Minister Senator Penny Wong lamented the “modern arms race forever transformed the scale of great power competition and pushed all of humanity to the brink of Armageddon”. Yet, Australia’s military industry is growing rapidly. Australia has doubled its percentage share of global military exports of major arms in four years. DFAT and ABS data indicate actual exports may have doubled in three years. In 2023-4 the Department of Defence issued permits for over $100billion of exports; and DFAT reported $2.7 billion of actual exports according to the Quaker report.Quakers Australia is calling for a parliamentary inquiry to review the entirety of the current system regulating military exports and imports. It is also critical to allow parliamentary scrutiny of both the export permits and the overall defence trade process. For more details visit here.  University of Sydney swaps peace for war The University of Sydney has disengaged from its past involvement in Peace while boosting its links with the defence sector and the lucrative international arms research and trade sector, according to the Medical Association for the Prevention of War (MAPW) In a letter to Vice Chancellor Mark Scott, MAPW President Dr Sue Wareham observed that the University had disengaged from the Sydney Peace Foundation which awards the prestigious Sydney Peace Prize and substantially cut the academic staff dedicated to peace and conflict studies, while actively promoting the US-Australia military buildup against China through the US Studies Centre (USSC). Beyond the USSC, the University has a large array of links with the defence sector. Of particular concern are the collaborations with companies that supply the Israel Defence Force as that nation conducts what is widely regarded as genocide in Gaza. Safran is just one such company. Dr Wareham noted in the letter that “the UN Human Rights Council stated over a year ago that any state transfer of weapons to Israel may constitute complicity in international crimes, possibly including genocide. While universities do not transfer weapons or weapons parts, collaboration with the companies that do so carries the same grave moral and reputational risks.” The letter calls on the University to cease collaboration with companies that supply products or services to Israel, until that nation complies fully with international humanitarian law. To read the letter  Genocide is profitable A new UN report by Francesca Albanese reveals how global entities are complicit in Israel’s occupation and genocide, fuelling the unbridled violence and exploitation. There is now a UN imprimatur on something that we have known all along: the ongoing genocide in Gaza is extremely profitable — so much so that, “after denying Palestinian self-determination for decades, Israel now threatens the very existence of the Palestinian people.” In a 39-page report titled From Economy of Occupation to Economy of Genocide, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Francesca Albanese, lays out how deep the tentacles of genocide as a profitable enterprise run: “arms manufacturers, tech firms, building and construction companies, extractive and service industries, banks, pension funds, insurers, universities, and charities” have all dug their teeth deep into the body of the Palestinians to extract multiple pounds of flesh. The report includes a database of 1,000 corporations that collaborate with Israel and goes on to name over 60, with known business ties to the Israeli apartheid and the ongoing full-throttle genocide. The report reveals “how the forever-occupation has become the ideal testing ground for arms manufacturers and Big Tech while investors and private and public institutions profit freely. In closing, the Special Rapporteur calls for urgent global action to confront Israel’s genocide against the Palestinians. States must impose sanctions, an arms embargo, and suspend trade and investment ties. Corporations must end complicity, pay reparations, and face prosecution. In a system where corporations and governments have no qualms about facilitating and profiting from the blood of the innocents, the onus is on us, the ordinary individuals, to throw sand in the gears of this ghastly business. We must amplify the call for sanctions, support movements for divestment, and demand prosecution of those who enable genocide from behind boardroom tables and parliamentary benches. Silence is collusion, and passivity is a luxury that the oppressed Palestinians cannot afford. To access the full report click here.  The First Annual General Meeting of APSF will be held on 29 July 2025. Apart from receiving the Annual Report and Financial statement, the meeting will elect a new Board.  What do you think about Australia’s security? The ANU National Security College (NSC) is conducting community consultations to discover what Australians think about national security. The consultations seek community views on four main areas:Australia’s national security challenges and opportunitiesPrinciples and goals that underpin Australia’s national security policyNational security priorities for Australia in the next decadeA future whole-of-nation approach to national security An issues paper is available for download from the NSC website and written submissions (from 50 to 5,000 words) are invited by 31 August 2025 to cc.nsc@anu.edu.au. The Australian Peace and Security Forum (APSF) welcomes this initiative and encourages our members and supporters to make a submission in their own name. The APSF will also make a submission. |