Peace & Security Updates – Australian Peace and Security Forum

Security update on deadly siege
20 May 2025: The following security update on the siege was released today to the media.“The latest attack, which continues a series of more frequent and devastating assaults from the same agent, killed five citizens and held 50,000 others captive in 15 towns for days. Transportation routes were blocked, schools closed, and nearly 800 homes destroyed. In ravaged areas, citizens were able to make hundreds of rescues and, in some cases, essential medicines were delivered via drones.”
The siege being reported on was the severe flooding in norther NSW in late May this year. It is a true account but the response was not what might have been anticipated if the siege was by a violent parastate group. The siege was the result of climate change. More disturbing is the fact that we can anticipate more fatal sieges, but we are doing little to avoid or prepare for such violent incidents.
This is how Distinguished Professor Penny Sackett of ANU introduced her presentation on climate change to the recent APSF webinar titled “What on Earth are we doing?”
Dr Sackett warned that transformational change is coming, whether we like it or not because the current situation is unsustainable. As human greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) continue to rise every year, climate disruption impacts are accelerating very rapidly. Earth’s natural carbon sinks (that absorb carbon) are weakening. “The good news is that “crises foster fundamental change; the bad news is that the change can be for better or worse”, commented Dr Sackett.
This transformational change should includeA Comprehensive Australian Peace and Security Strategy that includes Human Security, Climate Security, Economic Security and Regional Defence SecurityAustralian GHG Reduction Plan with science-based GHG targets for both domestic and `exported’ emissions that phases out essentially all fossil fuel useA Comprehensive and `Living’ Australian Adaptation Action Plan that is evidenced-based, locally relevant, and recognises that the world is on a current trajectory to 3°C of global heating.
The video of this presentation is available on Youtube.

How hot is too hot, Doctor?
This common question points to the critical link between climate change and health for physician and cardiologist Dr Arnagretta Hunter. Heat is a serious health risk and may have the highest mortality in Australia, Dr Hunter told the APSF webinar “What on Earth are we doing?” Heat deaths are not reflected in our health data and it is not clear how hot is too hot. “We called for climate change to be added to death certificates as a way to highlight how we need to link extreme weather events to mortality,” she said.
In the summer of 2018-19, the one before the black summer of 2019-20, Canberra experienced 5 days with temperatures over 40C. In the 30 years between 1960 and 1990, only 3 days recorded a temperature of 40C. As a cardiologist concerned about the health of my patients, I advised ‘don’t exercise, it’s too hot’. But she went on to explain how lack of exercise also has health impacts.
“Exercise is a powerful anti-aging intervention; not exercising can increase frailty,” she emphasized.
Through 2019, it did not rain in Canberra and in the Black Summer that followed in Eastern Australia, 33 people were killed by fire, 400 plus died from smoke related complications, thousands were hospitalized and there were long term mental health impacts. “Extreme events have a lasting impact across the community”, she said.
Another key theme in Dr Hunter’s presentation was the inter-connection between people and place. Caring for people and place with an intergenerational lens, understanding science and using our imagination is critical for today and tomorrow” concluded Dr Hunter.
The video of these two outstanding presentations and the illuminating comment by Professor Poelina is available on Youtube.

Waking the snake
Moderator for the webinar was Professor Anne Poelina, a Nyikina Warrwa woman from the Kimberly region of Western Australia. During the discussion following the presentations, Anne commented how the people of the Kimberley refer to ‘waking the snake’. The metaphor means to wake up the consciousness of the people to restore the ancient wisdom of our places through an ethic of care and love. “Across Australia, Indigenous nations recognize a serpent as a creator spirit of rivers and waterways, which remains to protect water and First Law”, she explained. “Waking up the Snake is liberating Country and the consciousness of the people to reconnect collectively as ecological families,” she continued.
“Waking the snake restores obligations of stewardship and enables practices that increase awareness and consciousness that vital landscapes are animate, active, agential, inspirited and communicative. We feel sentient places when we care for Country through solidarity. There is hope because you are part of this story now,” explained Anne.(Waking up the Snake: Ancient Wisdom for RegenerationAnne Poelina, Bill Webb, Sandra Wooltorton and Naomi JoyGodden)

Climate disruption undermining the security and future of Australians
Rising global temperatures are heating the oceans and atmosphere leading to record breaking flooding in Eastern Australia while parts of South Australia and Victoria are suffering from prolonged drought.
Extreme weather is leaving thousands without homes and livelihoods, according to the second Australian Peace and Security Forum Quarterly Report – The Heat is On released on World Environment Day.
The earth is tracking towards around 2.7°C average warming by 2100, according to Dr Sven Teske Research Director at the University of Technology, Sydney. That level of warming would represent “unprecedented peril” for life on this planet.
The skyrocketing cost of property damage due to extreme weather is now more than $7 billion in Australia adding to inflationary pressures due to the rapidly rising insurance premiums. More than 35 % of properties are now uninsured, reports Emeritus Professor Ian Lowe, of Griffith University.
Indigenous leader, Professor Anne Poelina of Notre Dame university points out that Indigenous people are on the frontline of climate change. Indigenous people make up 6% of the world’s population but remain stewards and custodians of a quarter of the worlds land surface. She calls for a new approach to “Forever Industries” in the Kimberly region of Western Australia.The report echoes the call of Pacific leaders who said in 2018 that ‘Climate change remains the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of the peoples of the Pacific.’
In The Heat is On informed researchers and practitioners examine six key issues and offer practical suggestions: international thinking on climate and security, the state of the climate crisis, climate and health, the cost of climate disruption to Australians, the contribution of Indigenous people, and the implications for Australia of failed states in our region due to climate disruption.
The Heat is On is available for free download from here.

APSF welcomes US review of AUKUS
It is timely that the US is reviewing the AUKUS submarine deal, according to Major General Michael G Smith AO (R’etd), founding Board member of the Australian Peace and Security Forum(APSF). The US review follows close on the heels of the UK review of AUKUS by the Defence Committee of the UK House of Commons.
But, according to Smith, “it is even more important that Australia urgently conduct a parliamentary review of AUKUS, inviting full public consultation.” Smith contends that it is totally misleading of the Labor government and Coalition opposition to claim that AUKUS was reviewed as part of the 2024 National Defence Strategy.
AUKUS was conceived in secret without parliamentary nor public disclosure or consultation. Yet future AUKUS submarine bases, as well as existing US bases and so-called ‘joint facilities’, contribute to Australia unnecessarily becoming a military target in the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China.
The eye-watering cost of AUKUS(~$368 billion over a 30-40 year timeframe) “unbalances the Australia Defence Force and denies opportunities for us to strengthen more relevant defensive and non-aggressive capabilities and to pursue a more independent approach in a multipolar world,” argues Smith.
AUKUS is designed to serve the interests of the US to contain China. This is not in Australia’s best national interest. China is our major trading partner and the major power in Asia.

APSF makes a case for ending AUKUS agreement to UK inquiry
The APSF’s submission to the UK inquiry argues that it is not in the interest of the UK or Australia to be part of a China containment strategy, and particularly when US government decision-making is increasingly unpredictable.
Opposition to AUKUS is growing in Australia with the realization that US and Australian vital interests no longer align and require recalibration. The priorities for Australia are to have fit-for-purpose and affordable national security and national defence strategies and to avoid conflict with China.
The APSF advocates that AUKUS is a very huge dud for Australian taxpayers because billions of their taxes are paid to the US and UK governments over the next 30 years, with no guarantee that even one nuclear-powered submarine will arrive in Australia. These billions of dollars could have been spent on health, education, social welfare, public transport and other services. Moreover, unless and until the vexed problem of nuclear waste storage is resolved, AUKUS should not proceed.

International jurist Navi Pillay to receive 2025 Sydney PeacePrize
The Sydney Peace Foundation has announced that Navanethem ‘Navi’ Pillay, former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and eminent international jurist, will receive the 2025 Sydney Peace Prize for a lifetime of advocating for accountability and responsibility in the face of crimes against humanity.
A former judge on the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, the International Criminal Court, and the first woman of colour to serve as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Judge Pillay has consistently championed international justice, truth-telling, and the protection of human dignity. Judge Pillay was officially announced as the 2025 recipient of the Sydney Peace Prize at Sydney Town Hall on Thursday 22 May.

Abandoning our Fears: Finding peace and security in our region
Join two outstanding international speakers who will reflect on the current global crises and the unique opportunity for Australia to rethink our national security based on our interests and those of our near neighbours.
Professor the Hon Gareth Evans AC, Distinguished Honorary Professor at the Australian National University and former Australian Foreign Minister from 1988-96, will discuss these issues with Kishore Mahbubani, a veteran diplomat, student of philosophy, and celebrated author. Mahbubani is currently a Distinguished Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute. He was President of the UN Security Council (Jan 2001 – May 2002).
Former Australian diplomat, the late Allan Gyngell AO argued in his 2021 book that the fear of being abandoned – originally by Britain, and later by our most powerful ally, the United States – has been an important driver of how Australia acts in the world. He concluded that “Everything Australia wants to achieve as a country depends on its capacity to understand the world outside and to respond effectively to it”
The chaotic world of international policy under the current US Government, is forcing Australia to rethink its security. Can we finally exorcise our fear of abandonment and find peace and security in our region? Is diplomacy now more important than defence? Is it time to implement an entirely new and independent Australian foreign policy?
Join us for the most important discussion on Tuesday 8 July at 6-7 pm. Register here.Moderator of the webinar is Melissa Conley-Tyler, Executive Director of AP4D.

APSF makes case for Indonesia and Australia to strengthen collaboration on disaster management and nuclear-free zone of peace
Following the May 14-16 visit by Prime Minister Albanese to Jakarta, journalist Rob Goodfellow wrote in the Jakarta Post (31/5/25) that Australia is in the “awkward position of having to navigate an increasingly unpopular AUKUS security agreement under an erratic, unpredictable and increasingly unreliable administration of President Donald Trump”. According to Goodfellow, “This has damaged Australian relations with China, Australia’s most significant trading partner” and stirred “deep concern” over regional nuclear proliferation.
Goodfellow went on to suggest that “President Prabowo Subianto and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese find themselves in a unique historical and geopolitical position to advocate as equal partners for diplomatic engagement, mediation and dialogue to manage differences between the superpowers and prevent military escalation.”
Quoting Major General (ret) Mike Smith, a founding member of the Australian Peace and Security Forum, the article describes how the Forum holds the view that neither Australia nor Indonesia should be expressing an overtly partisan anti-China or pro-US position (and vice versa), particularly over Taiwan, as well as over third-party territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
Reflecting on the recent high-level meeting, Smith speculates that the Prabowo-Albanese partnership has the potential to inspire the development of a coordinated mechanism for the rapid deployment of combined forces in times of need such as the December 2004 tsunami and the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake disaster or, for that matter, the 2019-2020 Australian bushfire catastrophe.
Smith believes that both nations should work together to progress civil-military disaster management to mitigate the impact of climate change in the region. Such collaboration also provides common ground to maintain our region as a nuclear-free zone of peace. As well, Smith contends that Indonesia and Australia can collaborate more closely to support the United Nations in peacebuilding and peacekeeping endeavours.
As Smith says, “The curtain has fallen on [over] 200 years of Western dominance in Asia. This, however, doesn’t mean that the West is irrelevant, but it is no longer able to colonise and dominate Asia:’
In contrast, Smith sees the long-standing and robust relationship between Indonesia and Australia as a model for non-aligned regional cooperation, one characterized by the Albanese government’s spirit of good neighbourliness, which, in contrast to AUKUS, will not keep Indonesia guessing.

United Nations turns 80
Eighty years ago on 26 June, the UN Charter was signed andit came into force on 24 October 1945.
Eight decades later, one can draw a direct line between the creation of the United Nations and the prevention of a third world war”, according to Antonio Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General.
By promoting peace, human rights and social progress, including access to healthcare and education, the United Nations has improved the lives of people around the world, creating better living standards for all.
The UN currently deploys tens of thousands of peacekeepers across 11 operations to help countries navigate the difficult path from conflict to peace. It has facilitated the adoption of nearly 30 disarmament treaties and ensured the destruction of over 55 million landmines.
The UN assists and protects more than 100 million people every year through humanitarian programs. Over the last eight decades, UN health agencies have vastly improved child and maternal mortality, saved millions of lives with immunization, and prevented and controlled the spread of deadly diseases like malaria, tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS.
At 80, we need the UN more than ever and we welcome the commitment of the overwhelming majority of the world’s states, including Australia to uphold the UN Charter.