Millions of tonnes of rubble left by Israel’s bombardment of Gaza could generate more than 90,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions – and take as long as four decades to remove and process, a study has found.

Israel’s destruction of Palestinian homes, schools and hospitals in Gaza generated at least 39m tonnes of concrete debris between October 2023 and December 2024, which will require at least 2.1m dump trucks driving 18m miles (29.5m km) to transport to disposal sites, researchers said.

Just clearing the rubble is on par with driving 737 times the Earth’s circumference, and would generate almost 66,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e), according to researchers at the universities of Edinburgh and Oxford, who used evolving open-source tools in remote sensing to detect and analyse conflict-related emissions.

The study, published in the journal Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability, is part of a growing movement to account for the climate and environmental costs of war and occupation, including the long-term damage to land, food and water sources, as well as post-conflict cleanup and reconstruction.

It is the most detailed examination so far of the carbon and logistical toll of dealing with debris – which in Gaza conceals thousands of unidentified human remains, toxins such as asbestos and unexploded ordnance.

Researchers looked at two scenarios to calculate the speed and climate impact of processing the uncontaminated debris – which could then be used to help reconstruct the razed Palestinian territory.

Assuming 80% of the debris is viable for crushing, a fleet of 50 industrial jaw crushers, which appear never to have been permitted in Gaza, would take just over six months and generate about 2,976 tonnes of CO₂e, the study found.

But it would take a fleet of 50 smaller crushers, the type primarily used in Gaza, more than 37 years to process the rubble, generating about 25,149 tonnes of CO₂e. In this scenario, the CO₂ generated by moving and crushing the debris from Gaza’s destroyed buildings would be on a par with charging 7.3bn mobile phones.

The longer the contaminated debris remains in situ, the more damage it will do to the air, water and health of the 2 million Palestinians who have now been displaced, starved and bombarded for 21 months.

“The CO₂ emissions from clearing and processing the rubble may seem small compared to the total climate cost of the destruction in Gaza, but our micro focus unpacks the labour and work required to even begin the process of reconstruction,” said Samer Abdelnour, lead author and senior lecturer in strategic management at the University of Edinburgh Business School.

“While filling the military emissions gap is important, our work can also support Palestinian policymakers, civil engineers, planners and other workers on the ground who are determined to reclaim what was lost, stay on the land and rebuild,” said Abdelnour, a Palestinian Canadian.

Commenting on the study, Ben Neimark, senior lecturer at Queen Mary University of London who leads a team researching the total climate cost of Israel’s recent conflicts, said: “The methodological focus on debris is cutting-edge work, highlighting often-missed environmental damage left by militaries after the war is over. It provides a fresh look at the daily images of bombed-out buildings and rubble from Gaza, rather than seeing them as longer-term climate impacts of war.”

Palestinians inspect the rubble at the al-Ansar mosque following an Israeli strike in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, on 2 June 2025. Photograph: Abdel Kareem Hana/AP

Gaza is a 25-mile strip of land, only twice the size of Washington DC at 141 square miles (365 sq km). More than 90% of homes in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed, in addition to the vast majority of schools, clinics, mosques and infrastructure.

The current analysis merges open-source data on building surface area, height, structural damage and road network topology to estimate debris distribution across Gaza – and then calculate the carbon cost of processing and transporting that debris during reconstruction, according to Nicholas Roy, co-author of the study who compiled the data and conducted the analysis.

“Looking ahead, finer spatial and temporal resolution of satellite images, advances in deep learning for building and damage classification, and methods that integrate information from different perspectives – such as street-level cellphone footage and top-down satellite images – open new opportunities to estimate military emissions across different scopes and better understand the true climate cost of war,” said Roy, an MSc statistical science student at Oxford University.

Burning fossil fuels is causing climate chaos, with increasingly deadly and destructive extreme weather events forcing record numbers of people to migrate. The Gulf region is among the most vulnerable to extreme weather and slow-onset climate disasters including drought, desertification, extreme heat and erratic rainfall, as well as environmental degradation, food insecurity and water shortages.

The total military carbon footprint is estimated at about 5.5% of global emissions – excluding greenhouse gases from conflict and war fighting. This is more than the combined contribution of civilian aviation (2%) and shipping (3%).

Researchers are attempting to calculate the climate costs being generated in two of the most deadly conflicts currently – Russia’s war in Ukraine and Israel’s military assaults in Gaza and the broader Middle East – that could eventually help calculate claims for reparations.

In June, a study led by Neimark found that the long-term climate cost of destroying, clearing and rebuilding Gaza could top 31m tonnes of CO₂e. This is more than the combined 2023 annual greenhouse gases emitted by Costa Rica and Estonia – yet there is no obligation for states to report military emissions to the UN climate body.

Stuart Parkinson, executive director of Scientists for Global Responsibility, said: “Militaries and war are large and hidden contributors to the climate crisis … It is important to include the full range of activities from production of the military equipment to fuel use during war fighting, from the damage to carbon stores like forests to cleanup efforts and reconstruction following the end of the war. This study adds to this bigger picture of war-related emissions.”

The Israeli government did not respond.

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But the Australian Government’s work-in-progress National Climate Risk Assessment appears to be sinking fast, leaving us ill-prepared.

By David Spratt, 15 January 2025

This potential fraying of Australia’s cohesiveness is manifested as breaking down of trust between Australian citizens and the government.[i] The trigger for this decline in trust is the perception in how the government fails to meet equitably the different interests of Australians. Current policy is failing to meet the needs of those of the young while older Australians are enjoying a disproportionate share of state-directed benefits. I fear we are witnessing the beginning of a breaking down across the generational divide as an older generation reaps the rewards of policies from which the younger generation does not benefit. For many of the young, Australia’s social contract has ceased to be fair and no longer serves all members of the nation equally.

Polling reveals that large numbers of today’s youth are deeply dissatisfied with the condition of their lives. The 2024 Australian Youth Barometer, a survey conducted by Monash University, revealed that young Australians suffer from persistent feelings of anxiety, isolation and pessimism, and have mental health problems.[ii] More concretely, 86% of young Australians have experienced financial difficulties in the last 12 months while 50% have had to face underemployment and have worked through the worst real decline in wages over the last 15 years. As consumers, the young have had to cut back while those over 65 have been able to increase their expenditure.[iii] Placing at risk Australian’s society’s future, only half of the young people surveyed expressed a desire to have children. A significant generational difference has emerged in the life expectancy with of those born after 1970 having fewer years to live compared to older generations.[iv]

The Scanlon Foundation’s 2023 report into Australia’s social cohesion also found a worrying trend.[v] Its research shows a precipitous decline in their respondent’s faith in social inclusion and economic justice. Only 36% of those surveyed have trust in the federal government, and among members of Generation Z, expectations of economic opportunity have dropped sharply since 2013. For many boomers, stable employment was the norm during their working lives whereas, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, job prospects for many of today’s youth include the inequity of the gig economy and a future dominated by casual employment.[vi] While the young are under significant pressure to pay their bills, the Scanlon Foundation’s research shows that most boomers are doing just fine.

The government’s own research supports the findings of these independent reports. In July 2024 the Department of Home Affairs released Strengthening Australian Democracy which found that younger people, and those struggling financially (often a young person) were less likely to trust the government.[vii] A lack of trust in government affects one’s perceptions of social cohesion and creates a weaker sense of belonging to the group. Trust encompasses not just loyalty to the state but faith that the government will take action to secure one’s interests. A trusted institution, according to the Department of Home Affairs report, is one that possesses the values of security, integrity, legitimacy and responsiveness.

A nation’s social contract, like all contracts, imposes obligations on both parties. The people accept the laws and regulations that the government imposes, and in return expects the government to provide for their needs while treating all members of the state equally, fairly and justly. According to John Rawls, the political philosopher and author of A Theory of Justice, the binding force in a social contract is an acceptance of social justice. By this he means the ‘proper distribution of benefits and burdens of social co-operation’.[viii] Government, to uphold its part of the social contract, must not only provide what the populace requires but do so fairly. Those placed in charge must demonstrate equity in their acts.

Generation Z faces pressures that the age cohorts that came before them did not — there is a generational gap that is marked by inequality. While no one has a claim to financial security, the playing field needs to be as level as possible. Yet, according to the Grattan Institute today’s young Australians are the first to face lower living standards than their parents.[ix] This is a result of wage growth not keeping up with rising costs, not because of too many avocado toasties and lattes. Due to their demographic bulge in the electorate, boomers were able to use their numbers to game the system in their favour. For today’s youth, home ownership is a distant prospect, with the median Sydney home now costing $1.4 million.[x] Since the end of free university education in 1986, students have had to bear an increasing share of the cost of their studies, and many now graduate with HELP debts that greatly exceed the average cost of a house in Sydney in the 1970s ($18,700).[xi] More Australians today are renters or have had to take out larger and longer mortgages than in the past.[xii] The Albanese government’s changes to indexation did little to provide relief, as students have seen their debt increase by more than 11% since Labor took office.[xiii] The state’s impost on the young will likely only get worse as boomers age and demand more care and support.

Climate change, and the government’s lack of meaningful action to reduce the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions, effectively means that the older generation has robbed the young of their future. A 2023 YouGov poll found that 75% of young Australians were concerned about climate change and that two-thirds believed it was having a negative impact on their mental health.[xiv] Instead of taking action against fossil fuel producers, the government has criminalised protest and chided school children who skip school to attend climate rallies.[xv] The terms ‘eco-distress’ and ‘eco-anxiety’ sum up the state of mind of the nation’s youth,[xvi] while climate justice and a chance for a fairer future is what they seek.[xvii]

People entrust the state with the responsibility to provide for the welfare of all of its citizens as equitably as possible. This is the foundation of the social contract. Unfortunately, the government is failing to balance the legitimate interests of all. Government relative inattention to the interests and needs of the nation’s youths contributes significantly to a growing sense of unease by the generation now embracing adulthood. The government needs to redress the current unequal balance of opportunity and justice across the Australian polity. Failure to do so will see the social contract not only continue to fray but to fall apart.

Dr Albert Palazzo, Adjunct Professor, University of New South Wales – Canberra

29 October 2024

I acknowledge the Ngarigo People upon whose land I live

[i] See, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-08/trust-slump-as-division-rules/101939406 and https://www.edelman.com.au/trust-barometer-2022-australia.

[ii] See,  The 2024 Australian Youth Barometer: Understanding young people in Australia today – Monash Education.

[iii] See, https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/graph-reveals-the-age-group-that-spends-the-most/news-story/3460b8556ddaf99933aa2c578e6de599.

[iv] See, https://theconversation.com/our-new-study-shows-life-expectancy-is-stagnating-for-australians-under-50-240790?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20October%2010%202024%20-%203123431869&utm_content=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20October%2010%202024%20-%203123431869+CID_83dbde2488b0d90ee66286b493cd35de&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=Our%20new%20study%20shows%20life%20expectancy%20is%20stagnating%20for%20Australians%20under%2050.

[v] See, https://scanloninstitute.org.au/publications/mapping-social-cohesion-report/2023-mapping-social-cohesion-report.

[vi] See, Digital platform workers in Australia | Australian Bureau of Statistics.

[vii] See, https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/about-us-subsite/files/strengthening-australian-democracy.pdf.

[viii] John Rawls, A Theory of Justice.

[ix] See, Generation gap: ensuring a fair go for younger Australians – Report.

[x] See, Comparing the Affordability of Australian Property Over Decades.

[xi] See, Comparing the Affordability of Australian Property Over Decades.

[xii] See, https://theconversation.com/more-rented-more-mortgaged-less-owned-what-the-census-tells-us-about-housing-185893.

[xiii] See, Reducing Student Debt – Department of Education, Australian Government.

[xiv] See, New research shows the scale of climate distress among young Australians: We have 12 solutions – Orygen, Revolution in Mind.

[xv] See, Ditching school to save the planet – ABC News.

[xvi] See, How is concern about climate change taking a toll on young people?.

[xvii] See, Climate Justice – AYCC.

26 August 2024

Climate disruption is the term used by scientists to communicate the magnitude and speed of the human-induced climate change now threatening the world. Of the six tipping points listed in a recent United Nations report on interconnected disaster risks, five are caused or exacerbated by climate change, namely: accelerated extinctions, groundwater depletion, melting mountain glaciers, unbearable heat, and an uninsurable future. This massive shock is already eroding Australian peace and security, and will continue to do so without an immense, immediate and sustained intervention to phase out fossil fuels. We need a new vision for our shared future.

Earth – humanity’s space ship ­– has an onboard life support system that provides clean air, water, food, and climate control for all its inhabitants.  This Earth System has varied slowly over the 100,000-year periods that separate ice ages, with accompanying oscillations in average Earth temperatures of about 5°C and sea level of many 10–100 metres.  Vastly different ecosystems thrive during these stages; the conditions that humans associate with the rise of agriculture have only persisted for the last 12,000 years.

Yet in only 150 years, humans have damaged the Earth life support system so substantially that within the next five to ten years global average temperatures are virtually certain to soar above those seen at any time in the last 800,000 years, reaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial times. On current trends, by century’s end that temperature difference will double to a 3°C rise, which is 60% of the difference between an interglacial period and an ice age, but in the opposite direction into uncharted territory.

Global average temperature difference (blue) and atmospheric concentration of CO₂ (orange) over the last 800,000 years. Low periods are ice ages, whilst high periods are interglacials; only about 5°C separates the two. Plot after Henley and Abram (2017).

Stoked by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels for about 90% and by deforestation and destructive land use for the remainder, this enormous and rapid increase in the Earth’s surface energy content is altering local and global climate, rainfall patterns, storm characteristics, and atmospheric and ocean currents, with devastating consequences for ecosystems. Climate impacts are hitting harder and sooner than scientists previously expected. Many risks that 20 years ago were thought possible only after temperature increases of 3 to 4°C degrees are now thought likely at 1.5°C degrees above the pre-industrial normal.

Simply put, because climate is a fundamental element of Earth’s life support system, its disruption is an existential risk to the security of all Earth life, including humans. Furthermore, because climate disruption exacerbates other human security threats, it sits as a hub in the interconnected web of risks to Australians.

The devastating consequences of climate disruption are already evident in Australia, including unprecedented extremes across the country, with some areas of eastern Australia going from disastrous drought, heat and bushfires to equally disastrous rainfall and flooding in just a few years. The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted that all areas of Australia are experiencing an increase in heat extremes with major impacts on natural systems, with some “experiencing or at risk of irreversible change.” The National Climate Risk Assessment identifies 56 climate risks to Australia, of which 11 were deemed in need of further in-depth study as a matter of high priority, namely risks to:

• Defence and national security
• National environment
• Health and social support
• Infrastructure and the built environment
• Regional, remote and First Nations communities’ well-being
• Primary industries and food
• Adaptation from unsuited and unresponsive governmental structures
• Community from legacy and future planning decisions
• Supply and service chains
• Economy
• Water Security

Little surprise, then, that the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group stated in March 2022 that “Climate change now represents the greatest threat to the future and security of Australians.” Direct impacts of global heating and climate extremes on health and wellbeing, and impacts on supply chains and world food prices could lead to social unrest and “increasing instability, conflict and forced migration from neighbouring nations,” they concluded, describing climate change as “an existential threat to nations and communities” across our region.

Climate disruption is a serious threat to food production systems because they are highly dependent on water resources and healthy ecosystems. Multiple regions already suffer from water cycle disruptions due to the rapidly changing climate. Heat and water stress on future global food production will result in deceasing yields even as water withdrawals increase. Australia is not immune. Risks to food and water security from climate disruption will contribute to mortality, morbidity and migration, with Australia particularly likely to experience inward migration. Our water resources have already been heavily damaged to due to climate disruption and mismanagement. As global heating continues, reversing this trend will require a new approach that places water justice at its centre.

Climate is linked to the digital revolution and artificial intelligence as well. Reducing energy consumption and conserving water resources are key to managing the causes and effects of climate disruption and ecosystem loss. Yet the digital revolution and the push to artificial intelligence are consuming these precious resources unchecked. Unexamined proliferation of artificial intelligence carries enormous risks to Australians, whilst voraciously consuming the resources fundamental to climate stabilisation and life on Earth.

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) – the world’s largest coral reef ecosystem – is literally dying before our eyes.  Its outlook is “very poor.”   Mass bleaching events occurred in 1998 and 2002, and the five more following in rapid succession in 2016, 2017, 2020, 2022 and 2024, the last the worst to date. Temperatures may have already crossed a critical threshold.  At 1.5°C of global heating, widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs such as the GBR is very likely. 

Health is central to human security. Climate disruption and the collapse of biodiversity is considered by global health professionals to be “the biggest global health threats of the 21st century.” Climate disruption is already compromising the health of Australians through extended heat waves, dangerous floods and storms, bushfire and bushfire smoke, increased mental and physical distress, and an increase in diseases spread by animals, all of which are causing human death and morbidity. Risks to human health rise dramatically with small increases in global temperature. Already peak heatwaves that occurred only once per 30 years in pre-industrial times in Australia can now be expected every 5 years. At global heating of 1.5°C, this frequency will nearly double to once every 2.7 years, and if heating of 3°C is reached, Australians will see such peak heatwaves nearly every year. With “just” 1.5°C of heating, thousands of global locations will experience what are now considered ‘once-in-100-years extreme-sea-level events’ at least once a year by 2100, with the tropics most affected. Yet climate disruption is yet to enter mainstream health planning in the country.

Climate disruption is hitting Australians in the pocket as well, not only through partial damage or complete loss of property due to climate extremes, but also in sharply rising insurance costs. The rise of insurance premiums, which are primarily a consequence of increased reinsurance costs, are continuing to outpace household income growth, and are being driven by the rising costs of climate disasters.

All this is cause for alarm, but an even greater worry is the risk of crossing tipping points in the Earth System, thresholds which if transgressed would lead to abrupt, far-reaching and effectively irreversible changes. Examples include permanent dieback of rain forests, changes in ocean circulation that would irreversibly affect local climate patterns, loss of ice that would sharply increase sea level rise, destruction of all the world’s coral reefs, and melting of permafrost that would dramatically accelerate global warming. A significant likelihood of crossing multiple climate tipping points exists above – the now inevitable – 1.5°C degrees of global heating, with increased risk every increment of warming thereafter.

The only way to substantial reduce the risk of these potentially catastrophic outcomes is to rapidly reduce the release of greenhouse gases. Current ambitions of Australia and most other nations are woefully inadequate; even if all the Paris Agreement unconditional national contributions were realised, the world would be expected to reach 2.9°C of global heating by the time today’s newborns are about 75 years old –– assuming tipping points are not crossed that would make matters worse In 2021, International Energy Agency constructed a range of scenarios of future energy use and consequent climate outcomes. The only one that held the increase in global temperature to 1.5°C degrees had no new fossil fuel projects from that date: no new coal mines, no new oil or gas fields, no coal-fired power stations that do not capture their emissions.

Given what is at stake, and the urgency with which action must be taken, it is clear that Australia’s current approach to fossil fuel development is irresponsible, as is that of many other nations.

Disruption of our life support system is the most urgent demonstration of our inappropriate engagement with the natural systems of this ancient continent. Earth-centred governance, drawing on the traditional knowledge and ancient wisdom of the First Australians could enable a new Australian Dream, committed to balance, co-existence, and peace with the whole of the natural world.

Mother Earth is our collective commons, and co-existence is the embodiment of life itself. This balance and harmony with our living cultural landscapes grounds the philosophical framework of values, ethics, virtues, and belief that the Law is in the Land, not in Man. Importantly we need to govern and manage the commons for the greater common good of humanity, our biosphere, and planetary well-being. We consider humanity’s need to invest into strengthening individual and collective resilience by revisiting our deep natural love for our commons. Earth-centred governance approach promotes a greater appreciation for the value of life, particularly regarding multispecies justice, co-existence, balance, and peace. It is time to draw on the ancient wisdom, traditional knowledge from antiquity, for modernity. A philosophical framework enshrined in the First Laws to underwrite a new Dream. We can Dream together so we can better understand how we, as human beings, can once again start to live in harmony with each other and with our non-human families. We need to enjoy and defend our amazing planet, Mother Earth, and life itself from climate chaos and destruction. Otherwise, Mother Earth will be lonely without the vibrations of human beings!

2024 Poelina and Perdrisat Dreaming A Climate Chance